A Judge's Dilemma

Donald Trump has been indicted on 91 felony counts in multiple jurisdictions. There’s an old saying about finding truth. It goes like this- just throw out the first 90 felony counts, agree they’re nothing but politically generated attacks, or whatever you want to call them. But, how about that last one, the 91st? Is that a lie, too? At some point the math takes over and it shows Trump’s ass is in a serious jam. Trump is pushing hard to get this primary over ASAP, roll the dice that he can beat Biden in a general election and then just pardon himself. Hypothetically, let’s suppose he pardoned himself. If you think you’ve seen this country come un-glued in the past, standby, you’ll think you’re back in the 60’s Days of Rage. The cases against Trump are varied…

1. The civil cases in New York are financial with no real danger of jail time. He’ll lose every one of them, and the financial penalties will be astronomical, but they’ll languish in appeals courts, and he’ll probably be dead of old age before he has to pay the bill…

2. The classified documents case in Florida is in front of a friendly judge who’s allowing Trump’s defense team to slow this down to a crawl. If and when she’s forced to move (years from now), I wouldn’t be surprised to see Trump cop to some kind of lesser charge with a fine and maybe some favorable probation…

3. The Georgia case is more interesting. It’s in state court and some of the edge he has in federal court goes out the window. If the Fulton County DA’s office can take Windex and paper towels and wipe the seminal fluid off this indictment, Trump could have a real problem. The presiding judge isn’t going to put up with Trump’s antics and the jury pool is not Trump-friendly. The case is loaded with “flip witnesses” and the state’s case is strong. Trump’s lawyers have quietly got to be concerned about Georgia….

4. Big Casino! The Jan 6th insurrection, this one is being played for all the marbles- win and go home, lose and go to federal prison. Nothing favors Trump here—there are flip witnesses, the jury pool is urban, the judge has been sending Trump’s rioters to jail like clockwork, she’s already granted gag orders and Jack Smith has a no-nonsense judge ready to go to and she’s already figured out Trump’s stalling tactics. The jury won’t be out long, and Trump will be found guilty. A judge has discretion at sentencing time, but when she’s already been passing down stiff prison sentences to the rioters, I don’t see her “pulling her punch” on the guy who started the insurrection. The best Trump can hope for would be home confinement, ankle bracelet-type probation….