Reading the Table

Gambling wisdom says you’ll never become a good poker player until you learn to read a table. So, a little less than a year out from a presidential election, let’s take the first shot at reading the table.

For most of us, the 2024 presidential race could be the most interesting election of our lifetime. Not so for MAGA Republicans, or progressive Democrats, both of whom vote on emotion far more than on issues. Progressive Democrats have a vision of Trump prowling the halls of power unchecked, chawing on a Big Mac, spewing out all-caps texts full of threats and insults and spouting all kinds of crazy shit. On the opposite side, MAGA Republicans see Joe Biden stumbling around while their children come home from grade school with an armload of dirty books, explaining the cool new pronouns they just learned and putting their parents on notice that inclusion is gonna’ change some things around the old neighborhood. Lost in the middle are the majority of Americans walking down the street, shaking their head and muttering, “Jayyysuuz Keyrisst, can we possibly find an adult to run this country?…”

So, who’s actually going to vote?  The total population of the US is about 333,300,000 and 161,420,000 are registered to vote. Of those registered, 66.8% voted in the 2020 presidential election and Biden won the popular vote by about 7,000,000 votes. Around 27% of registered voters identify as Republican and about 33% identify as Democrats. About 15% of Democrats identify as Progressive and 33% of Republicans identify as MAGA. Before the 2024 election about 3,273,700 people will die from all causes and about 8,000,000 seventeen-year-olds will turn eighteen and join the voting pool. There are about 68,600,000 Gen Z’s (born in the late 1990’s to about 2010). If you accept the premise that older voters tend to be more conservative and younger voters tend to be more liberal, these numbers seem to show a slight advantage for the democrats.

A year out from the elections, the media is already flooded with polls. Personally, I’d disregard all of them. Almost all are commissioned by groups supporting a candidate or cause and some are tied to “for profit” enterprises.

Realistically, most people hate polls-- they have no interest in sharing how they’ll vote and have callouses on their fingers from deleting and blocking political ads and polls. The only ones who respond to polls already have their minds made up, have an axe to grind, or have strong (emphasis on strong) feelings for or against a candidate. This early, all the polls do is confirm the country is about 30% Republican and 30% Democrats. The Iowa caucus historically favors conservative candidates and longshots, so, forget the polls--the score is zero-zero, no votes have been cast and until New Hampshire votes, anything you hear is all emotion.

Tomorrow, let’s start looking at some of the issues…