The Long Run

 “…People talking about us, they got nothin' else to do. When it all comes down, we will still come through in the long run…” The Long Run…The Eagles… In 1519, after landing in Mexico, Spanish conquistador Hernando Cortez ordered his men to sink all but one of his ships before marching inland to conquer the Aztec empire. His message was simple, we win, or we die here. Trump has adopted a similar approach in the “run up” to the Presidential Election. If you’re a MAGA voter, an ultra-conservative, a Kamala hater, or a devoted member of the Trump cult, things are looking pretty good for you 20 days ahead of the election. Despite Trump’s penchant for playing fast and loose with the facts, spewing threats he can’t back up, and basically acting like a total asshole, he’s still pretty much tied with Kamala Harris in all the polls. Not bad for a convicted felon, whose already been indicted for interfering with the 2020 presidential election (that’s a politically correct way of saying sedition), he could still pull this thing off. Kamala Harris will win the general election by a landslide due to the lopsided number of Democratic voters, and Trump haters in blue states and urban areas. At the end of the day, it will come down to the Electoral College and the voters in those six swing states, all too close to call. So, why is Trump pulling out all the stops in the last weeks of the race? Does it reside in his childish need for recognition and adoration? Senator Lindsay Graham, a Trump ally, recently said going to Mar-a-Lago is like going to North Korea, when Trump walks into the room, everyone must stand up and applaud. Is Trump just a garden variety narcissist demanding the “spotlight” and constant praise, in any situation? Nope, I think the truth is that he’s backed himself in a corner. I’ve never thought Trump was highly intelligent, but what I do think is he has almost animal-like cunning, able to spot a trap when he sees one- to put in the most basic terms, he needs to win to stay out of federal prison, it’s as simple as that. The charges against him are serious, far more serious than the classified documents case in Florida, or the seminal stained racketeering case in state court in Georgia. Judge Tanya Chutkan, the presiding judge in the Jan 6th case has been “ringing up” the defendants in the Jan 6th riot for some serious prison time, so there’s no reason to think she’d “pull her punch” for the guy who instigated it. But Trump has an escape route (kind of), he wins, and his handpicked Attorney General dismisses all federal cases against him- eeezy peezy, less fuss than pardoning yourself, and just as effective. Trump is a schemer, impatient, undisciplined, not a thinker who analyzes every outcome, and plans an exit strategy, so, it could be his undoing. If Kamala Harris wins the popular vote, fueled by abortion rights and anti-Trump sentiment, and it gives the democrats control of the house and senate, it creates a new problem for him- possible impeachment and conviction in response to the dismissal of charges. Either way, win or lose, Trump has problems. Most wealthy 78-year-olds would already have an exit strategy- you’ve got more money than you can spend, cut a deal to stay out of prison, pay the hefty fines, play golf, and enjoy the years you’ve got left. I doubt this guy will, he’s ruled by his temper and emotions, he’ll just get louder, bang and crash around, and any good things he did will be forgotten. When it’s all over, he’ll just get tossed on the scrap heap of history…